Setup Scores

A single 0–100 score that rolls up seven things we track on each stock — valuation, quality, how far it has fallen, what insiders & institutions are doing, options, sentiment and the macro backdrop — into one read on how attractive it looks right now. Higher = more attractive. Sorted by total score.

📈 Trading Signals Backtest (2020-Present)

Performance metrics across 5,453 setups computed historically at the exact bottom dates (no look-ahead bias).

🟢 BUY (Bottom Fish / Buy-in)Total Signals: 1,359

42.1%60d Win Rate

Triggered when quality is high, valuation is low, and stock has deep drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-29.7%

Avg 60d Bounce+36.3%

🔴 SELL (Risk Avoidance / Sell-out)Total Signals: 1,470

40.5%60d Win Rate

Triggered on value trap, overvaluation, or excessive retail crowd topping.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-24.8%

Avg Score33.5

⚪ HOLD (Hold / Watch)Total Signals: 2,624

HOLD/ HOLD (Hold / Watch)

Wait-and-see or normal positions on moderate quality/drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-28.6%

Avg Score54.8

💡 Empirical Summary: 🟢 BUY signals occur on average at a deep -29.7% drawdown, with a 42.1% 60-day bounce rate and +36.3% average bounce. 🔴 SELL signals warn of overvaluation or toppings to avoid value traps.

All scored Live candidates

All · 517 Deep Value · 111 Quality on Sale · 18 Watch · 264 Crowded Long · 16 Value Trap Risk · 85 Avoid / Topping · 23

Ticker	Total	Verdict	Value	Quality	Drawdown	Smart Money	Options	Sentiment	Macro
ISRG	487/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	5	87	57	63	60	29	56
COIN	457/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	23	44	100	54	7	37	56
ROST	457/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	25	76	3	69	60	37	56
VRT	417/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	22	67	32	61	22	29	56
HWM	407/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	81	11	58	80	30	56
ABNB	407/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	17	87	15	40	45	29	56
TPR	397/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	21	60	19	62	32	34	56
PLTR	387/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	92	49	38	9	29	56
LRCX	387/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	99	3	45	50	29	56
EQIX	377/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	10	49	8	69	61	38	56
AAPL	357/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	9	86	0	33	48	29	56
ROK	347/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	4	67	4	54	44	37	56
CSCO	347/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	7	79	0	50	28	29	56
JBL	347/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	19	59	8	44	33	30	56
GLW	327/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	67	26	60	3	29	56
TTWO	317/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	41	29	55	47	29	56
AMD	317/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	23	55	1	30	38	29	56
CAT	317/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	1	65	11	26	61	29	56
FTNT	307/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	92	0	17	37	29	56
PANW	297/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	71	0	46	20	29	56
ARM	267/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	0	55	0	33	34	38	56
IRM	247/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	14	30	6	27	38	30	56
DDOG	227/7	HOLDAvoid / Topping	11	46	0	1	41	30	56