Setup Scores

A single 0–100 score that rolls up seven things we track on each stock — valuation, quality, how far it has fallen, what insiders & institutions are doing, options, sentiment and the macro backdrop — into one read on how attractive it looks right now. Higher = more attractive. Sorted by total score.

📈 Trading Signals Backtest (2020-Present)

Performance metrics across 5,453 setups computed historically at the exact bottom dates (no look-ahead bias).

🟢 BUY (Bottom Fish / Buy-in)Total Signals: 1,359

42.1%60d Win Rate

Triggered when quality is high, valuation is low, and stock has deep drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-29.7%

Avg 60d Bounce+36.3%

🔴 SELL (Risk Avoidance / Sell-out)Total Signals: 1,470

40.5%60d Win Rate

Triggered on value trap, overvaluation, or excessive retail crowd topping.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-24.8%

Avg Score33.5

⚪ HOLD (Hold / Watch)Total Signals: 2,624

HOLD/ HOLD (Hold / Watch)

Wait-and-see or normal positions on moderate quality/drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-28.6%

Avg Score54.8

💡 Empirical Summary: 🟢 BUY signals occur on average at a deep -29.7% drawdown, with a 42.1% 60-day bounce rate and +36.3% average bounce. 🔴 SELL signals warn of overvaluation or toppings to avoid value traps.

All scored Live candidates

All · 517 Deep Value · 111 Quality on Sale · 18 Watch · 264 Crowded Long · 16 Value Trap Risk · 85 Avoid / Topping · 23

Ticker	Total	Verdict	Value	Quality	Drawdown	Smart Money	Options	Sentiment	Macro
FISV	716/7	SELLCrowded Long	99	—	100	63	26	19	56
VST	567/7	SELLCrowded Long	79	54	53	70	13	29	56
DASH	547/7	SELLCrowded Long	56	47	87	68	17	29	56
NVDA	547/7	SELLCrowded Long	58	100	21	52	27	29	56
APH	517/7	SELLCrowded Long	80	68	21	51	8	29	56
ANET	477/7	SELLCrowded Long	59	73	21	48	13	29	56
FANG	477/7	SELLCrowded Long	65	46	21	62	29	30	56
SHOP	457/7	SELLCrowded Long	24	52	67	81	3	29	56
AMGN	437/7	SELLCrowded Long	46	55	26	57	25	29	56
AMAT	377/7	SELLCrowded Long	2	90	2	61	28	29	56
IBM	347/7	SELLCrowded Long	38	58	11	33	10	29	56
Q	337/7	SELLCrowded Long	27	60	15	39	6	29	56
QCOM	327/7	SELLCrowded Long	32	72	0	15	18	30	56
XYZ	317/7	SELLCrowded Long	31	26	13	54	18	29	56
COHR	307/7	SELLCrowded Long	13	39	21	47	28	29	56
F	257/7	SELLCrowded Long	51	8	0	25	13	29	56